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Centre for Policy on Ageing | |
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Projections of multi-morbidity in the older population in England to 2035
— estimates from the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model | | Author(s) | Andrew Kingston, Louise Robinson, Heather Booth, Martin Knapp, Carol Jagger |
| Corporate Author | MODEM Project (modelling outcome and cost impacts of interventions for dementia), Personal Social Services Research Unit - PSSRU, London School of Economics and Political Science - LSE |
| Journal title | Age and Ageing, vol 47, no 3, May 2018 |
| Publisher | Oxford University Press, May 2018 |
| Pages | pp 374-380 |
| Source | https://academic.oup.com/ageing |
| Keywords | Ill health ; Chronic illness ; Demography ; Measurement ; Mathematical models ; England. |
| Annotation | Models projecting future disease burden have focussed on one or two diseases. Little is known on how risk factors of younger cohorts will play out in the future burden of multi-morbidity (two or more concurrent long-term conditions). A dynamic microsimulation model, the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model, simulates the characteristics (sociodemographic factors, health behaviours, chronic diseases and geriatric conditions) of individuals over the period 2014-2040. Participants were about 303,589 individuals aged 35 years and over (a 1% random sample of the 2014 England population) created from Understanding Society (the UK Household Longitudinal Study, UKHLS), the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), and the Cognitive Function and Ageing Study II (CFAS-II). The study measured the prevalence of, numbers with, and years lived with, chronic diseases, geriatric conditions and multi-morbidity. It finds that between 2015 and 2035, multi-morbidity prevalence is estimated to increase, the proportion with 4+ diseases almost doubling (2015: 9.8%; 2035:17.0%) and two-thirds of those with 4+ diseases will have mental ill-health (dementia, depression, cognitive impairment no dementia). Multi-morbidity prevalence in forthcoming cohorts aged 65-74 years will rise (from 45.7% in 2015 to 52.8% in 2035). Life expectancy gains (men 3.6 years, women 2.9 years) will be spent mostly with 4+ diseases (men: 2.4 years, 65.9%; women: 2.5 years, 85.2%), resulting from increased prevalence of, rather than longer survival with, multi-morbidity. The findings indicate that over the next 20 years, there will be an expansion of morbidity, particularly complex multi-morbidity (4+ diseases). The authors advocate for a new focus on prevention of, and appropriate and efficient service provision for those with, complex multi-morbidity. (RH). |
| Accession Number | CPA-190615223 A |
| Classmark | CH: CI: S8: 3R: 3LM: 82 |
Data © Centre for Policy on Ageing |
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| ...from the Ageinfo database published by Centre for Policy on Ageing. |
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