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Centre for Policy on Ageing | |
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| What is the impact of population ageing on the future provision of end-of-life care? Population-based projections of place of death | | Author(s) | Anna E Bone, Barbara Gomes, Simon N Etkind |
| Journal title | Palliative Medicine, 2017 |
| Pages | 8 pp |
| Source | http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/026921... |
| Keywords | Terminal care ; Death ; Ageing process ; Death rate [statistics] ; England ; Wales. |
| Annotation | Population ageing represents a global challenge for future provision of health, social and end-of-life care. There has been a recent rise in the number of deaths at home (where most people would prefer to die) and a fall in deaths in hospital. However, given other new trends on place of death, where the rising number of deaths will occur in future years and the implications for health and social care will need to be examined. Using Office for National Statistics (ONS) data for England and Wales on place of registration for all deaths for 2004-2014, and predicted deaths for 2015-2040 from official population forecasts, the authors make projections on where people will die from 2015 to 2040 across all care settings. They applied age- and gender-specific proportions of deaths in hospital, care home, home, hospice and 'other' to numbers of expected future deaths. They estimate that annual deaths are projected to increase from 501,424 in 2014 (38.8% aged 85 years and over) to 635,814 in 2040 (53.6% aged 85 years and over). Between 2004 and 2014, the proportions of home and care home deaths both increased (18.3% to 22.9%, and 16.7% to 21.2% respectively), while hospital deaths declined (57.9% to 48.1%). If current trends continue, numbers of deaths in care homes and homes will increase by 108.1% and 88.6% respectively; and by 2040, the care home will be the most common place of death. However, if care home capacity does not expand and additional deaths occur in hospital, then hospital deaths will start to rise by 2023. Therefore, to sustain current trends, end-of-life care provision in care homes and the community needs to double by 2040. An infrastructure across care settings that supports rising annual deaths is urgently needed. Otherwise, hospital deaths will increase. (OFFPRINT.) (RH). |
| Accession Number | CPA-171013001 A |
| Classmark | LV: CW: BG: S5: 82: 9 * |
Data © Centre for Policy on Ageing |
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| ...from the Ageinfo database published by Centre for Policy on Ageing. |
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