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Centre for Policy on Ageing | |
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Temporal trends in dementia incidence since 2002 and projections for prevalence in England and Wales to 2040
— modelling study | | Author(s) | Sara Ahmadi-Abhari, Maria Guzman-Castillo, Piotr Bandosz |
| Journal title | BMJ 2017;358:j2856, 05 July 2017 |
| Pages | 11 pp |
| Source | https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.j2856 |
| Keywords | Dementia ; Mathematical models ; Longitudinal surveys ; England ; Wales. |
| Annotation | For this study, researchers used six waves of data across the years 2002-2013 from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), a representative study of men and women aged 50+. The aim was to estimate calendar trends in dementia incidence, correcting for bias due to loss to follow-up of study participants, a joint model of longitudinal and time-to-event data was fitted to ELSA data. To forecast future dementia prevalence, the probabilistic Markov model IMPACT-BAM (IMPACT-Better Ageing Model) was developed. IMPACT-BAM models transitions of the population aged 35+ through states of cardiovascular disease, cognitive and functional impairment, and dementia, to death. The model enables prediction of dementia prevalence, while accounting for the growing pool of susceptible people as a result of increased life expectancy and the competing effects due to changes in mortality, and incidence of cardiovascular disease. In ELSA, dementia incidence was estimated at 14.3 per 1000 person years in men, and 17.0 per 1000 person years in women aged 50+ in 2010. Dementia incidence declined at a relative rate of 2.7% (95% confidence interval 2.4% to 2.9%) for each year during 2002-13. Using IMPACT-BAM, the researchers estimated there were approximately 767.000 (95% uncertainty interval 735,000 to 797,000) people with dementia in England and Wales in 2016. Despite the decrease in incidence and age-specific prevalence, the number of people with dementia is projected to increase to 872,000 in 2020, 1,092,000 in 2030, and 1,205,000 in 2040. A sensitivity analysis without the incidence decline gave a much larger projected growth, of more than 1.9 million people with dementia in 2040. Although age-specific dementia incidence is declining, the number of people with dementia in England and Wales is likely to increase by 57% from 2016 to 2040. This increase is mainly driven by improved life expectancy. (OFFPRINT.) (RH). |
| Accession Number | CPA-170728001 A |
| Classmark | EA: 3LM: 3J: 82: 9 * |
Data © Centre for Policy on Ageing |
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| ...from the Ageinfo database published by Centre for Policy on Ageing. |
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