Centre for Policy on Ageing



Predicting who will use intensive social care — case finding tools based on linked health and social care data
Author(s)	Martin Bardsley
Journal title	Age and Ageing, vol 40, no 2, March 2011
Pages	pp 265-270
Source	http://ageing.oxfordjournals.org/ http://www.bgs.org.uk/
Keywords	Ageing process ; Health services ; Social welfare ; Services ; At risk ; Usage [services] ; Mathematical models.
Annotation	The costs of delivering health and social care services are rising as the population ages and more people live with chronic diseases. This study aimed to determine whether predictive risk models can be built that use routine health and social care data to predict which older people will begin receiving intensive social care. The study focused on five health and social care providers across England. Study participants were all aged 75 or over and continuously registered with a general practitioner. Study findings showed that it was possible to construct models that predicted which people would begin receiving intensive social care in the coming 12 months. The performance of the models was improved by selecting a dependent variable based on a lower cost threshold as one of the definitions of commencing intensive social care. (JL).
Accession Number	CPA-110323010 A
Classmark	BG: L: TY: I: CA3: QLD: 3LM
Data © Centre for Policy on Ageing

...from the Ageinfo database published by Centre for Policy on Ageing.