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The possible evidence for an epidemiological transition hypothesis for elderly suicides
Author(s)A Shah
Journal titleInternational Psychogeriatrics, vol 22, no 2, March 2010
Pagespp 219-226
Sourcehttp://www.journals.cambridge.org/ipg doi:10.1017/S104161020999130X
KeywordsSuicide ; Economic status [elderly] ; Correlation.
AnnotationAn epidemiological transition hypothesis has been developed to explain simultaneously wide cross-national variations in suicide rates of older people, trends over time for older suicide rates and age-associated trends in suicides rates. This speculative hypothesis suggests that there is a curvilinear (inverted U-shaped curve) relationship between suicide rates of older people and socioeconomic status fitting the quadratic equation y = a + bx - cx2 (where y is the suicide rate, x is the socioeconomic status, and a, b and c are constants). The predicted curvilinear relationship between older people's suicide rates and gross national domestic product (GDP), a measure of socioeconomic status, fitting the above quadratic equation was examined with a curve estimation regression model using data from the World Health Organization (WHO). The relationship between suicide rates in both sexes in the age-bands 65-74 and 75+ years and the GDP was curvilinear (inverted U-shaped curve) and fitted the above quadratic equation, and was statistically significant (at least p<0.05) in all four groups. Caution should be exercised in accepting this model of the epidemiological transition hypothesis for elderly suicide rates because it is generated from cross-sectional data using an ecological design. Ideally, this model requires rigorous testing by following selected countries of low socioeconomic status over time as they develop socioeconomically. (KJ/RH).
Accession NumberCPA-100407207 A
ClassmarkEV: F:W: 49

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