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Centre for Policy on Ageing | |
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The effect of dementia trends and treatments on longevity and disability
— a simulation model based on the MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (MRC CFAS) | | Author(s) | Carol Jagger, Ruth Matthews, James Lindesay |
| Journal title | Age and Ageing, vol 38, no 3, May 2009 |
| Pages | pp 319-325 |
| Source | http://www.ageing.oxfordjournals.org |
| Keywords | Dementia ; Cognitive impairment ; Physical disabilities ; Life expectancy tables ; Longitudinal surveys ; Cambridgeshire ; Newcastle upon Tyne ; Nottingham ; Oxford ; Gwynedd. |
| Annotation | The numbers with dementia are projected to double between 2001 and 2040, in line with continued increases of life expectancy. Projections have failed to account for the impact of changing risk factors on future numbers with dementia or disability. The authors describe use of a dynamic macro-simulation model used to calculate the numbers of older people with disability to 2026. Transition rates to disability and death conditional on a range of conditions calculated from the Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (MRC CFAS), were applied to the 1992 England and Wales population. Scenarios for trends in dementia incidence, risk factors and treatment were devised from a systematic review and applied. Population ageing alone resulted in 19% more older people between 2006 and 2026 and 82% more with disability. A combination of reduced incidence of cognitive impairment and disabling consequences alongside improved survival provided the largest reductions in the disabled population (15,000) and the numbers cognitively impaired (302,000) compared with ageing of the population alone. Research priorities should focus on earlier detection of dementia and its risk factors, thereby allowing earlier and more targeted treatment to alleviate its associated disability. (RH). |
| Accession Number | CPA-090618218 A |
| Classmark | EA: E4: BN: S7: 3J: 8C: 86A: 8NTF: 8OC: 98 |
Data © Centre for Policy on Ageing |
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| ...from the Ageinfo database published by Centre for Policy on Ageing. |
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