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Centre for Policy on Ageing | |
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Incidence of cardiovascular disease and cancer in advanced age
— prospective cohort study | | Author(s) | Jane A Driver, Luc Djoussé, Giancarlo Logroscino |
| Journal title | British Medical Journal, vol 337, no 7683, 13 December 2008 |
| Pages | pp 1400-1403 |
| Source | www.bmj.com |
| Keywords | Cardiovascular diseases ; Cancer ; Doctors ; Longitudinal surveys ; United States of America. |
| Annotation | The influence of increasing age on the incidence and increasing lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease and cancer was investigated in a cohort of 22048 American male doctors aged 40-84 who were free of major diseases in 1982. 3252 major cardiovascular events and 5400 incident cancers were confirmed over 23 years of follow up. The incidence of major cardiovascular disease continued to increase to age 100. Beginning at age 80, however, major cardiovascular disease was more likely to be diagnosed at death. The incidence of cancer peaked in those aged 80-89 and then declined. Cancers detected by screening accounted for most of the decline, whereas most cancers for which there was no screening continued to increase to age 100. Unadjusted cumulative incidence overestimated the risk of cardiovascular disease by 16% and cancer by 8.5%. The remaining lifetime risk of cancer at age 40 was 45.1% and at age 90 was 9.6%. The remaining lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease at age 40 was 34.8% and at age 90 was 16.7%. The incidence of new cardiovascular disease continued to increase after age 80 but was most often diagnosed at death. The decrease in the incidence of cancer late in life seemed largely due to decline in cancers usually detected by screening. These findings suggest that those aged 80+ have a substantial amount of undiagnosed disease. The remaining lifetime risk of both diseases approached a plateau in the 10th decade. This may be due to decreased detection of diseases and reporting of symptoms, and increased resistance in those who survive to old age. Accurate estimates of disease risk in an ageing population require adjustment for competing risks of mortality. (RH). |
| Accession Number | CPA-090323202 A |
| Classmark | CQ: CK: QT2: 3J: 7T * |
Data © Centre for Policy on Ageing |
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| ...from the Ageinfo database published by Centre for Policy on Ageing. |
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