Centre for Policy on Ageing



Counting backward to health care's future — using time-to-death modeling to identify changes in end-of-life morbidity and the impact of aging on health care expenditures
Author(s)	Greg Payne, Audrey Laporte, Raisa Deber
Journal title	The Milbank Quarterly, vol 85, no 2, 2007
Publisher	Blackwell Publishing, 2007
Pages	pp 213-257
Keywords	Health services ; Expenditure [care] ; Death rate [statistics] ; Ill health ; Mathematical models.
Annotation	In most developed countries, as the larger population cohorts approach the age of 65, the impact of population ageing on health care expenditures has become a topic of growing interest. This article examines trends in disability in old age and end-of-life morbidity, estimation of the cost of dying, and models of expenditure as a function of both age and time-to-death. It finds broad improvement in morbidity and mortality in older people in the developed world. Reduced mortality and low growth in the cost associated with dying could reduce forecasted expenditures, but high growth in expenditures for those not close to death and for non-hospital services could create new economic pressures on health care systems. (OFFPRINT). (RH).
Accession Number	CPA-071218220 E
Classmark	L: QD: S5: CH: 3LM
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...from the Ageinfo database published by Centre for Policy on Ageing.