Centre for Policy on Ageing
 

 
UK national population projections in perspective
 — how successful compared to those in other European countries?
Author(s)Nico Keilman
Journal titlePopulation Trends, no 128, Autumn 2007
Pagespp 20-30
Sourcehttp://www.statistics.gov.uk
KeywordsPopulation statistics ; Reliability ; Europe.
AnnotationCompared to population forecasts of other European countries, those made in the UK during the past 30 years had somewhat larger forecast errors for fertility and smaller errors for mortality. Migration forecasts in the UK were about as accurate as the European average. After controlling for various effects such as relative data volatility both at the time a projection is made and during the period of the projection, there is no indication that recent forecasts in European countries have been more accurate than older ones. Hence, population forecasts are intrinsically uncertain, and a forecast for the UK in the form of probability distributions is presented. (RH).
Accession NumberCPA-071107201 A
ClassmarkS4: 5HC: 74

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