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Centre for Policy on Ageing | |
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Longevity in the 21st century
— presented to the Faculty of Actuaries, 15 March 2004, and to the Institute of Actuaries, 26 April 2004 | | Author(s) | R C Willets, A P Gallop, P A Leandro |
| Corporate Author | Faculty of Actuaries; Institute of Actuaries |
| Publisher | Institute of Actuaries, London, 2004 |
| Pages | 148 pp |
| Source | Institute of Actuaries, Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London WC1W 7QJ. Website: www.actuaries.org.uk |
| Keywords | Longevity ; Retirement ; Death rate [statistics] ; Life expectancy tables. |
| Annotation | A detailed analysis of mortality change in the UK at the beginning of the 21st century is offered. Starting from an an exploration of 20th century mortality trends, focusing in particular on the 1990s, the underlying forces that drive trends in longevity are discussed. These include the "cohort effect" and the "ageing of mortality improvement". The analysis of underlying trends suggests that life expectancy in retirement in the UK is likely to increase rapidly in the early part of the 21st century. A core theme is that future projections should be grounded in as good an understanding of the past as possible. Different methods for projecting future rates of mortality are discussed, and it is noted that emphasis should be placed on the uncertainty surrounding projections. The financial impact of using different assumptions for future mortality is explored. Significant differences in the cost of an annuity or pension arise from the use of the various projection bases. Thus, actuaries have a vital role in helping to inform the wider debate on life expectancy. (RH). |
| Accession Number | CPA-040607002 B |
| Classmark | BGA: G3: S5: S7 |
Data © Centre for Policy on Ageing |
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| ...from the Ageinfo database published by Centre for Policy on Ageing. |
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