Centre for Policy on Ageing



The future aged: new projections of Australia's elderly population
Author(s)	Heather Booth, Leonie Tickle
Journal title	Australasian Journal on Ageing, vol 22.4, December 2003
Pages	pp 196-202
Source	http://www.cota.org.au
Keywords	Longevity ; Death rate [statistics] ; Australia.
Annotation	The Low-Carter method of mortality forecasting combines a demographic model of mortality with time-series methods of forecasting. In this article, the method is applied to data for Australian females and males for 1969-2000 to forecast mortality to 2031. These forecasts are used with standard population projection methods to produce projections of the older population. By 2027, forecast life expectancy is 88.1 and 82.9 for females and males, compared with official projections of 85.4 and 81.4 years. Over the period to 2031, the populations aged 65+ and 85+ are forecast to increase by factors of 2.3 and 3.4 respectively. Compared with official projections, the forecast older population is substantially larger and has higher old-age dependency ratios, higher proportions aged 85+ and lower sex ratios. Thus, official projections underestimate the size of the future aged population, especially for women and the oldest-old. (RH).
Accession Number	CPA-040216203 A
Classmark	BGA: S5: 7YA
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...from the Ageinfo database published by Centre for Policy on Ageing.